LostPremier League15 December 2025
Manchester United vs Bournemouth prediction
Manchester United vs Bournemouth, 15 December 2025: we published Manchester United Win at 1.83, model probability 62%. It lost (4-4). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Manchester United Win
Match Result
1.83
Odds we published
Implied 55%
61.6%
Model probability
+6.8 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost4-4
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.