WonPremier League26 December 2025
Manchester United vs Newcastle prediction
Manchester United vs Newcastle, 26 December 2025: we published Manchester United Win at 2.51, model probability 42%. It won (1-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Manchester United Win
Match Result
2.51
Odds we published
Implied 40%
42.1%
Model probability
+2.2 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won1-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.