LostLigue 129 November 2025
Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain prediction
Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain, 29 November 2025: we published Paris Saint Germain Win at 1.57, model probability 67%. It lost (1-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Paris Saint Germain Win
Match Result
1.57
Odds we published
Implied 64%
66.5%
Model probability
+2.7 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost1-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.