LostLigue 114 March 2026
Monaco vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction
Monaco vs Stade Brestois 29, 14 March 2026: we published Over 2.5 at 1.64, model probability 66%. It lost (2-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Over 2.5
Over/Under Goals
1.64
Odds we published
Implied 61%
66.1%
Model probability
+5.2 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost2-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.