WonSerie A22 November 2025
Napoli vs Atalanta prediction
Napoli vs Atalanta, 22 November 2025: we published Napoli Win at 2.21, model probability 47%. It won (3-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Napoli Win
Match Result
2.21
Odds we published
Implied 45%
46.9%
Model probability
+1.6 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won3-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.