LostSerie A24 May 2026
Napoli vs Udinese prediction
Napoli vs Udinese, 24 May 2026: we published Over 2.5 at 1.90, model probability 60%. It lost (1-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Over 2.5
Over/Under Goals
1.90
Odds we published
Implied 53%
60.4%
Model probability
+7.7 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost1-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.