WonPremier League4 January 2026
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace prediction
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace, 4 January 2026: we published Newcastle Win at 1.68, model probability 63%. It won (2-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Newcastle Win
Match Result
1.68
Odds we published
Implied 60%
62.7%
Model probability
+3.1 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won2-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.