LostPremier League22 November 2025
Newcastle vs Manchester City prediction
Newcastle vs Manchester City, 22 November 2025: we published Manchester City Win at 1.99, model probability 57%. It lost (2-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Manchester City Win
Match Result
1.99
Odds we published
Implied 50%
56.8%
Model probability
+6.4 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost2-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.