WonPremier League27 December 2025
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City prediction
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City, 27 December 2025: we published Manchester City Win at 1.57, model probability 66%. It won (1-2). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Manchester City Win
Match Result
1.57
Odds we published
Implied 64%
66.3%
Model probability
+2.4 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won1-2
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.