LostUEFA Champions League5 November 2025
Pafos vs Villarreal prediction
Pafos vs Villarreal, 5 November 2025: we published Villarreal Win at 1.44, model probability 74%. It lost (1-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Villarreal Win
Match Result
1.44
Odds we published
Implied 70%
73.7%
Model probability
+4.1 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost1-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.