WonFIFA World Cup2 July 2026
Portugal vs Croatia prediction
Portugal vs Croatia, 2 July 2026: we published Portugal Win at 1.70, model probability 61%. It won (2-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Portugal Win
Match Result
1.70
Odds we published
Implied 59%
61.0%
Model probability
+2.2 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won2-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.