LostFIFA World Cup23 June 2026
Portugal vs Uzbekistan prediction
Portugal vs Uzbekistan, 23 June 2026: we published Under 2.5 at 2.58, model probability 56%. It lost (5-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Under 2.5
Over/Under Goals
2.58
Odds we published
Implied 39%
55.5%
Model probability
+16.9 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost5-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.