LostUEFA Champions League10 December 2025
Qarabag vs Ajax prediction
Qarabag vs Ajax, 10 December 2025: we published Qarabag Win at 1.95, model probability 57%. It lost (2-4). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Qarabag Win
Match Result
1.95
Odds we published
Implied 51%
57.1%
Model probability
+5.8 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost2-4
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.