LostLa Liga1 December 2025
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia prediction
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia, 1 December 2025: we published Valencia Win at 4.14, model probability 32%. It lost (1-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Valencia Win
Match Result
4.14
Odds we published
Implied 24%
31.9%
Model probability
+7.7 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost1-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.