LostLa Liga4 January 2026
Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid prediction
Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid, 4 January 2026: we published Atletico Madrid Win at 1.94, model probability 54%. It lost (1-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Atletico Madrid Win
Match Result
1.94
Odds we published
Implied 51%
54.3%
Model probability
+2.9 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost1-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.