LostLigue 115 May 2026
Saint Etienne vs Rodez prediction
Saint Etienne vs Rodez, 15 May 2026: we published Rodez Win at 4.27, model probability 39%. It lost (0-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Rodez Win
Match Result
4.27
Odds we published
Implied 23%
38.7%
Model probability
+15.3 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost0-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.