LostUEFA Europa League20 May 2026
SC Freiburg vs Aston Villa prediction
SC Freiburg vs Aston Villa, 20 May 2026: we published SC Freiburg Win at 5.31, model probability 36%. It lost (0-3). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
SC Freiburg Win
Match Result
5.31
Odds we published
Implied 19%
35.7%
Model probability
+16.9 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost0-3
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.