WonBundesliga10 January 2026
SC Freiburg vs Hamburger SV prediction
SC Freiburg vs Hamburger SV, 10 January 2026: we published Over 2.5 at 2.14, model probability 65%. It won (2-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Over 2.5
Over/Under Goals
2.14
Odds we published
Implied 47%
65.0%
Model probability
+18.3 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won2-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.