LostBundesliga15 March 2026
SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin prediction
SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin, 15 March 2026: we published Over 2.5 at 2.15, model probability 63%. It lost (0-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Over 2.5
Over/Under Goals
2.15
Odds we published
Implied 47%
62.9%
Model probability
+16.4 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost0-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.