LostFIFA World Cup10 July 2026
Spain vs Belgium prediction
Spain vs Belgium, 10 July 2026: we published Belgium Win at 5.51, model probability 26%. It lost (2-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Belgium Win
Match Result
5.51
Odds we published
Implied 18%
26.2%
Model probability
+8.1 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost2-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.