LostFIFA World Cup21 June 2026
Spain vs Saudi Arabia prediction
Spain vs Saudi Arabia, 21 June 2026: we published Under 2.5 at 3.00, model probability 64%. It lost (4-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Under 2.5
Over/Under Goals
3.00
Odds we published
Implied 33%
64.3%
Model probability
+30.9 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost4-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.