LostUEFA Champions League7 April 2026
Sporting CP vs Arsenal prediction
Sporting CP vs Arsenal, 7 April 2026: we published Sporting CP Win at 4.49, model probability 36%. It lost (0-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Sporting CP Win
Match Result
4.49
Odds we published
Implied 22%
36.3%
Model probability
+14.0 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost0-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.