LostUEFA Conference League18 December 2025
Strasbourg vs Breidablik prediction
Strasbourg vs Breidablik, 18 December 2025: we published Draw at 6.46, model probability 19%. It lost (3-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Draw
Match Result
6.46
Odds we published
Implied 15%
19.0%
Model probability
+3.5 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost3-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.