LostUEFA Europa League16 September 2026
Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar, 16 September 2026: we published Draw or Away at 2.22, model probability 63%. It lost (1-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Draw or Away
Double Chance
2.22
Odds we published
Implied 45%
63.2%
Model probability
+18.1 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost1-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.