LostPremier League28 December 2025
Sunderland vs Leeds prediction
Sunderland vs Leeds, 28 December 2025: we published Leeds Win at 2.83, model probability 40%. It lost (1-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Leeds Win
Match Result
2.83
Odds we published
Implied 35%
39.7%
Model probability
+4.4 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost1-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.