LostLigue 11 February 2026
Toulouse vs Auxerre prediction
Toulouse vs Auxerre, 1 February 2026: we published Toulouse Win at 1.76, model probability 62%. It lost (0-0). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Toulouse Win
Match Result
1.76
Odds we published
Implied 57%
62.3%
Model probability
+5.5 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost0-0
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.