WonFIFA World Cup7 July 2026
USA vs Belgium prediction
USA vs Belgium, 7 July 2026: we published Belgium Win at 2.79, model probability 41%. It won (1-4). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Belgium Win
Match Result
2.79
Odds we published
Implied 36%
41.1%
Model probability
+5.2 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won1-4
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.