WonLa Liga24 May 2026
Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid prediction
Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid, 24 May 2026: we published Home or Draw at 1.46, model probability 74%. It won (5-1). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Home or Draw
Double Chance
1.46
Odds we published
Implied 68%
74.2%
Model probability
+5.8 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Won5-1
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.