LostUEFA Champions League14 October 2026
Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain prediction
Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain, 14 October 2026: we published Home or Draw at 1.38, model probability 75%. It lost (2-4). Every settled pick stays published, win or lose.
Our published pick
Home or Draw
Double Chance
1.38
Odds we published
Implied 72%
75.3%
Model probability
+2.9 pts
Edge over the price
Model probability minus implied
Result
Lost2-4
How this pick was made
A Poisson model with Dixon-Coles adjustment prices the fixture from team scoring rates, recent form, shots data and confirmed availability, then compares that price with the multi-bookmaker consensus. A pick is published only where the model's probability beats the implied probability of the odds. Every published pick stays on the site after it settles, whether it won or lost.